With Micron’s quarter ending ultimo may, it is possible to get a mid-quarter update on the memory market situation and with that the general market.
Comparing Micron’s Revenue to COGS, it is obvious that the price increases have not stopped yet. Both NAND and DRAM prices increased after a short decline in NAND pricing.
Although 6.1% quarterly revenue growth is certainly respectable, it is also the lowest growth in this cycle, indicating that the memory cycle might be over. The year over year growth is still over 40%
The divisional revenue shows that the CNBU division and MBU division are pulling the wagon. Interestingly it looks like the Mobil business is starting to outpace CNBU that have been dominant over the last cycle. This could mean that the smartphone manufacturers in China are starting to accept the inflated DRAM and NAND pricing. SBU is declining to indicate that Micron is not supporting the open SSD market anymore but preferring to sell to the Data center directly.
Microns business is still dominated by the Computing market (Datacenter up, Graphics up, PC down) and the Smartphone dominated consumer market. All markets but communications show healthy growth.
Our conclusion is that the Datacenter market has cooled slightly while the smartphone market has decided to ignore the high memory pricing and boost manufacturing again. The memory cycle could be at its end. The Cloud market can quickly change to high growth again as the revenue is based on very few large customers and their infrastructure decisions.